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SimplePredictor

Ehlers DSP prediction cycle ehlers dsp

A fixed-coefficient 2-pole linear predictive filter.

Usage

Use as a lightweight one-bar-ahead price predictor for cycle-mode markets. Its low computational cost makes it suitable for real-time streaming at high frequency.

Background

Ehlers derives a Simple Predictor that extrapolates price one bar forward using only the current and prior bars weighted by the dominant cycle coefficient. Despite its simplicity it provides useful one-bar forecasts in cycling markets, demonstrating the predictive value of cycle measurement.

Parameters

  • hp_len (default: 15): HighPass filter length
  • lp_len (default: 30): LowPass (SuperSmoother) length
  • q (default: 0.35): Damping/Predictor coefficient

Formula

\[ Predict = \frac{Signal - 1.8Q \cdot Signal_{t-1} + Q^2 \cdot Signal_{t-2}}{1 - 1.8Q + Q^2} \]

Source