SimplePredictor
A fixed-coefficient 2-pole linear predictive filter.
Usage
Use as a lightweight one-bar-ahead price predictor for cycle-mode markets. Its low computational cost makes it suitable for real-time streaming at high frequency.
Background
Ehlers derives a Simple Predictor that extrapolates price one bar forward using only the current and prior bars weighted by the dominant cycle coefficient. Despite its simplicity it provides useful one-bar forecasts in cycling markets, demonstrating the predictive value of cycle measurement.
Parameters
hp_len(default: 15): HighPass filter lengthlp_len(default: 30): LowPass (SuperSmoother) lengthq(default: 0.35): Damping/Predictor coefficient
Formula
\[
Predict = \frac{Signal - 1.8Q \cdot Signal_{t-1} + Q^2 \cdot Signal_{t-2}}{1 - 1.8Q + Q^2}
\]