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Hurst Exponent

ML Features statistics regime-detection hurst ml trending mean-reversion

Measures the persistence or anti-persistence of a time series using R/S analysis.

Usage

Use to classify the current market regime. H > 0.5 suggests a trending market (persistent); H < 0.5 suggests a mean-reverting market (anti-persistent). Useful as a filter for trend-following or mean-reversion strategies.

Background

The Hurst Exponent, pioneered by Harold Edwin Hurst in 1951, quantifies the 'memory' of a time series. In technical analysis, it distinguishes between trending, mean-reverting, and random walk price action. It is a critical feature for machine learning models to adapt their logic to the underlying market structure.

Parameters

  • period (default: 100): Lookback period for R/S analysis

Formula

\[ H = \frac{\ln(R/S)}{\ln(N)} \]

Source